By \u00a0Hugh Miall<\/p>\n
When two nearby cyclones rotate around each other, merging into a larger and more dangerous storm, meteorologists call it the Fujiwhara effect.<\/p>\n
Is something like this developing in Northeast Asia?<\/p>\n
Recent decades have seen an increase in what analysts call \u2018transnational conflicts\u2019<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 that is, conflicts with local, regional and international dimensions.\u00a0Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0is one example,\u00a0Taiwan<\/a>\u00a0is another. It is difficult to address these multi-level conflicts, since responses are needed at all three levels.<\/p>\n Recently, transnational conflicts in different parts of the world have started to merge together. Responding to these emergent global conflict complexes will be a still more daunting challenge.<\/p>\n East Asia has a raft of unresolved conflicts, left over from the postwar settlement of 1945. \u00a0The legacy of the Korean war fuels continuing tensions and fears of war. The unresolved dispute over the status of Taiwan leads to dangerous military activity around the island. The territorial and maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas involve clashing nationalisms but also broader strategic concerns over supply lines and resources. Events in these hotspots were always calibrated against the state of relations between the US and China, China and Japan, Japan and North Korea. But it is only recently that they have become connected with conflicts in Europe.<\/p>\n The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 rang warning bells in policy circles in East Asia. Policy-makers feared that President Xi might be emboldened to act against Taiwan following Putin\u2019s lead. The Ukraine conflict came closer with North Korea\u2019s decision to supply the Russian Federation with weapons, and closer still when President Putin concluded a defence pact with Kim Jong-Un in June 2024. The Russian Federation and North Korea pledged to provide mutual assistance should either be attacked. Kim Jong Un offered \u201cfull support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine\u201d (CBS News, 19 June 2024). Meanwhile, on the Korean peninsula,\u00a0Kim Jong Un<\/a>\u00a0warned his people to prepare for war, and ordered the army to undertake \u2018actual war drills\u2019, while proposing to change the constitution to refer to \u2018completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming the R.O.K. and annexing it as a part of the territory of our \u200brepublic in case a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.\u2019<\/p>\n At the same time, the West has not yet learned the lesson that NATO expansion is dangerous, and NATO is preparing to expand its activities into the Indo-Pacific region and north east Asia. NATO is developing links with South Korea and Japan and invited them to attend its last two summits.<\/p>\n Staff talks between\u00a0NATO and the Japanese Self Defence Force<\/a>\u00a0have identified areas of cooperation in responding to security challenges, cybersecurity and military planning. A NATO office was to have been opened in Tokyo, though\u00a0France<\/a>\u00a0objected to this plan. \u00a0NATO sees its involvement in the area as a necessary response to the challenges to the \u2018rules-based order\u2019 coming from China, North Korea and Russia. The NATO summit of July 2023\u00a0declared that<\/a>\u00a0\u201cThe People\u2019s Republic of China\u2019s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.\u2019 The NATO Secretary General followed this up by saying that security is now globalised and security crises in one part of the world reverberate in another.<\/p>\n In April, before attending the NATO Summit for the first time as a South Korean leader, President Yoon condemned any \u2018attempt to change the status quo by force\u2019 in the Taiwan Strait, and promised that South Korea would cooperate with the international community to prevent such an outcome. The Japanese strategic community also believes that Japan would be drawn in, under this contingency. The Korean and Taiwan and Japan-China conflicts are thus potentially interlinked.<\/p>\n China and North Korea see the collaboration between NATO and Japan and Korea as a US-led effort to bring NATO into the region. In North Korea\u2019s case, it is seen as part of a US strategy to overthrow Kim\u2019s regime.\u00a0 In China\u2019s case,\u00a0NATO expansion<\/a>\u00a0is seen as a “grave challenge” to global peace and stability. “Despite all the chaos and conflict already inflicted, NATO is spreading its tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region with an express aim of containing China.”<\/p>\n The US is deliberately emphasising the interconnections between the European and Indo-Pacific theatres as part of its strategy of building alliances with democratic partners. National Security Adviser\u00a0Jake Sullivan<\/a>\u00a0noted:<\/p>\n “We are also growing the connective tissue between US alliances in the Indo-Pacific and in Europe\u2026allies in the Indo- Pacific are staunch supporters of Ukraine, while allies in Europe are helping the United States support peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”<\/p>\n